The São Paulo property market, read by the numbers that move it.

Selic — Special System for Settlement and Custody rate — The Central Bank's policy rate, set eight times a year by the Copom; Brazil's equivalent of the Fed funds rate, and the number every other line here prices off. While it sits in double digits, a government bond pays more than most apartments yield in rent, so money stays in bonds and buyers negotiate hard. CDI — Interbank Deposit Certificate rate — runs a hair below the Selic and is the yardstick Brazilian investors quote; a rental yield below it means the owner is paying to hold the asset. Taxa de financiamento imobiliário — mortgage rate — what banks charge individuals on regulated home loans; it moves far less than the Selic because the funding is capped, and it sets the price ceiling of the domestic buyer you compete with.

IPCA — Broad National Consumer Price Index — official inflation, the index the Central Bank targets and the one most residential leases follow. IGP-M — General Market Price Index — heavy in wholesale prices and the dollar; the traditional indexer of commercial leases, and the reason a rent can jump when the currency falls even while consumer inflation is quiet. INCC — National Construction Cost Index — what it costs to build; it adjusts the instalments of an off-plan purchase until the keys are handed over.

Selic no percentil — Selic against its own ten-year history — how many month-ends of the last decade had a lower rate than today. Near the top of the range, the next move is more likely down, which is when buyers who were priced out return. Juro real — real interest rate — the Selic minus twelve-month inflation: what a government bond pays after inflation, and the strongest single brake on property prices. IPCA contra o teto da meta — inflation against the target ceiling — the Central Bank targets 3% with a tolerance of 1.5 points; above 4.5%, rates tend to rise or stay high.

IVG-R — Residential Real Estate Collateral Value Index — built from bank appraisals of financed homes rather than asking prices; the closest Brazilian equivalent to the FHFA House Price Index. It lags the market by a few months but ignores seller optimism. Read against construction costs (INCC) and inflation (IPCA), all rebased to 100: when collateral values grow slower than building costs, new launches get pricier than the existing stock, and the resale apartment is where the value is.

PTAX — the Central Bank's reference exchange rate — the average of the day's dealer quotes, used in contracts and the rate that translates a São Paulo price into dollars. A weaker real lowers the entry price for a foreign buyer and lifts the rental yield in hard currency; what the round trip returns depends on where the rate sits when you sell.

IBC-Br — Central Bank Economic Activity Index — a monthly proxy for GDP, published weeks before the official figure. Office demand and premium rents follow it with a lag; a rising line while the Selic falls is the combination that has historically preceded a price cycle.